BY David Benger
On Monday, December 21st, the former Director of Mossad, Tamir Pardo, became the inaugural speaker of The MirYam Institute “Exclusive Speaker Series.” Pardo spoke eloquently, thoughtfully, and candidly about many leading issues of the day, and chiefly on three major topics. First, he discussed the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – commonly known as the Iran Deal). Next, he offered some thoughts on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And lastly, in response to questions from the audience, Director Pardo spoke about the challenges and opportunities the rise of China poses to Israel.
Before delving into these three key issues, however, Director Pardo began with an even more pressing question: What does Israel need to do to regain bipartisan support in the United States? It was a stellar question that I wish Director Pardo had tried to answer. He did not really address this issue in any depth. He noted that Israel is a sovereign nation, and it should not intervene in domestic politics. Moreover, he said, Israel must not be beholden to American interests or overly deferential to American requests.
When it came to the Iran challenge, Pardo’s expertise was in full gear. He presented three theoretical options for dealing with the approaching deadline for a nuclear-armed Iran.
Option one, he said, was a full ground invasion and destruction of weapons-making facilities, akin to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Pardo immediately dismissed Option 1 as absurd, but ever the intelligence professional, he felt it needed to be voiced nonetheless.
Option 2 is to sit back and wait for the growth of pro-democratic revolutionary forces in Iran, and to support that revolution when it inevitably comes. Pardo was clear that he was speaking only of providing material assistance to a homegrown revolution in full stride, and never of fomenting revolution from the outside. History has shown that outside forces artificially stoking the flames of rebellion (especially in the Middle East) inevitably ends in catastrophe. But offering support to an ongoing revolution might just be ok. The problem with Option 2 is that you are at the mercy of Iranian domestic groups, and if Iranian nuclear scientists complete their work before grassroots activists’ revolt, Israel will have compromised the security of millions of her residents.
That leaves us with Option 3, which, according to Pardo is to negotiate with Iran, to dialogue with the Iranian leadership, and to convince them to change their opinion toward Israel, and reconsider their genocidal intent. Option 3, according to Pardo, is “the only option.”
Pardo claimed the greatest mistake made by President Obama’s negotiating team was to not open the agreement with full diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States. Paragraph 1 of Section 1 of the agreement, said Pardo, should have been a hearty declaration of mutual recognition and establishment of diplomatic relations, followed by immediate openings of reciprocal embassies in Tehran and Washington as well as multiple consulates in both countries.
The conversation retreated from the horizon problem of Iran to the existential problems Israel faces with regard to daily rocket fire from Hamas in Gaza, and various other terror cells in the West Bank, as well as the looming threat from Hezbollah on Israel’s northern tip in Lebanon. Here, Pardo made it clear that though the Abraham Accords are a positive development, they have nearly no impact on the Israeli-Palestinian status quo. Annexation of neighborhoods in Judea and Samaria was never a serious consideration by Prime Minister Netanyahu, according to Pardo. It was merely a feint meant to inspire negotiating partners in the UAE, Bahrain, and other nations to come to the table. And so, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is no closer to being solved. Pardo was adamant that a one-state solution was untenable. Demographic trends alone would mean that in only a few decades, one state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea would be a majority Muslim Palestinian state.
At this point, moderator Benjamin Anthony opened the floor to audience questions. Pardo was asked, in particular, to characterize the growth of China from Israel’s perspective: Is China foremost a prospective trading partner? A military rival? Is China’s growth an opportunity or a threat from Israel’s perspective? Pardo answered succinctly, but clearly: “From my perspective, Israel’s priority is the United States. Israel should be careful not to cross the rules that the United States has set, because Israel could end up losing more than it gains.” Pardo indicated that Israel should be taking its lead from the Americans with regard to China, because the special relationship with the U.S. is Israel’s most important strategic asset.
It was not only a special treat to hear from a man of Tamir Pardo’s stature, but indeed a singular honor. The man has done far more than most to ensure that Jewish blood is no longer cheap. Pardo, in my esteem, was thoughtful, self effacing, analytical, and clever in his calculations of the geopolitical costs and benefits.
David Benger is a research fellow at Harvard University. He is a recent graduate of Harvard Law School, where he served as the chapter president of Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under the Law, and the Events Chair of the HLS Alliance for Israel, as well as an editor on the Journal of Law and Public Policy and the HLS National Security Journal.